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Lying with Statistics
August 20, 2015
12:01 pm
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leslee
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I enjoy the topic. I go crazy for color - pure spectral tones. Gazing into the old-fashioned spectroscopes in college was a real turn-on. I am still freaked out at that beige line off to the side, though I've forgotten to which element it belonged. Oh, yes. The world could fall down around my oblivion. Spectroscopes are for the eyes what cilantro is for the tongue.

I actually delighted to hear you mention "Doppler vectoring with spectral shift." I had to read it about six times to convince myself of the meaning, which might be wrong. Back in the ESJ days, I used to call professors for elaboration. Usually, they were of no help, as they were too specialized or too left brained to tender a physical interpretation. Craig Bohren and Thomas Phipps are two well-remembered exceptions. Anyway, undergraduate texts always treated astronomical observations as if the sky were flat, so I called a local astronomy department to find out how the big dogs compensated for changes in atmospheric density, curvature of the earth, etc. The department head said he had never thought of that. Of course, when you're dealing with numbers where sine = tangent, chances are, to quote Chicago with a song that used to be for my ears what cilantro and spectrosocopes . . . "It really. Doesn't. Matter. Anyhow."

In light of antics with which I am familiar, I find it not weird that NASA is shaping its priorities to align with Hollywood films - of course, one could argue an asteroid could serve as the common enemy to unite the globe. I'm not into creating science to make peace. I'm actually conflicted over that whole scene. I hate war, but lies have a way of always harming in the end. Maybe people hate "us" because "we're" not frank with them. I dunno. The subject increases my susceptibility to ulcers.

August 20, 2015
12:44 pm
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lunazure
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No ulcers... give me time gotta type it up.... hate doing it twice. I'm in crisus, yuku went down. No one has gotten their coffee on the west coast yet.

Doppler as used in astronomy (red shift) is best read for basic understanding in Asimov's *Universe* one of the most eggheady books I've ever read, and I was able to follow it. I should re read it. It's slightly dated, especially on quasars, but my socks were knocked off over red shift. I had basic astronomy at the college level in 1972, and all I took away from that was that planetary and comet orbits are ellipses, with the central body at one foci. At one time I could figure the math to an ellipse, because I was very good at Geometry... I'd have to dig into a book to find that now.

NO the astronomers did not cater to Hollywood, but they were very aware of, and kind to their audience.

Seriously I'm stalling on writing right now.... patience....

August 20, 2015
3:15 pm
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lunazure
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Third night... well really the fourth night of free astronomy outreach lectures in beautiful downtown Bremerton. The third night was in Spanish, which is totally fitting since the new telescope is being built in Chile. I thought about going down, then decided I really needed a night off to just be involved with my own projects at home, of which I have many. (I know just enough Spanish to be dangerous, every little bit helps to sharpen the skills). The same night I guess they had what they called an "astronomy slam" around downtown in various bars (not all THAT many bars) they said like 220 astronomers were in town for this!!! WOW... so I guess this is a huge convention of astronomers from all over the globe; we had an Aussie (I think) give the intro, and he was barefoot too. They said it was a lot better than meeting in Tucson and Phoenix in August (where they usually meet, 'cause that telescope is top dog right now). They all love Bremerton!!! We seem to be a hidden jewel here. (I think so too) Go figure.

I wandered downtown finally, again finding a parking spot on the bottom level, amazing how many people jockeyed for a spot up on the first level of the garage, I honestly think a lot of people are afraid of parking garages, especially lower levels. What the h*** it was empty (the top was full) and it's nice to not have to endanger the new car paint. I'm glad I go early, the word is out on this program and the theatre filled up this night... not an empty seat. This speaks well of the local populace, but on that level... again the Q&A at the end (and some in the beginning prior to 7 pm kick off) involved Black Holes. (MAN the dumb questions!!! This was a college level lecture, and I bet many were lost!) I'm so glad to see the kids involved, but after the fifth dumb question about Black Holes, it gets a little annoying. Plainly Hollywood has terrified many around 1) killer meteorites and 2) black holes. It IS the stuff of nightmares, but very poorly portrayed on screen (tho Deep Impact was pretty good tech wise). And, bottom line, it is very unlikely that ANY of us will meet our demise by either astronomical apparition.

There IS a mandate from the USA and the UN both to map the heavens and look for NEOs (Near Earth Objects) with an eye to something hitting the Earth, and astronomers are gladly taking the money I'm sure. But seriously the likelihood is low. But yes it's possible....

The title this night was Cosmology: Mapping the Universe's Dark Stuff. Again, the topic veered toward the impending construction of the LSST in Chile. Many impressive stats at data collection were tossed about (I don't think the astronomical community has quite absorbed it all yet, they seem overwhelmed so far), one I liked was "in the first month of operation of the LSST, we will capture more data than all the data from all the telescopes so far, combined" wow.... the camera of the LSST will be sizable, and will be sealed in a cryogenic unit (cold is good for electronics, dryness and cameras) I researched the LSST and it is near Santiago up in the mountains, at around 30* S Latitude, he talked a bit about how the water drops out of the atmosphere at that latitude (tropics, trade winds etc), cloud cover is rare, also from that degree, the entire sky is visible depending on the time of year of course, but you can see it all. Mauna Kea was also considered as a site, but they kept running into Nimbys, so Chile (with their welcoming, money hungry government) was a much nicer option. I agree. Brush up yer Espanol, ya'all. I see economic growth in Patagonia on the horizon.

Local contact is Bob Able at Olympic College, and the website where the videos of these lectures will be is http://www.bkat.org. They aren't up as of this typing, hope to post in this thread eventually. With the graphics. I took some photos of the screens, ditto might post at some point.

This dude giving the lecture "Jim" babbled (he talked pretty fast, but I kept up) a couple of stellar measuring bits (including a Voyager year, that is the distance Voyager travels in a year, I saw no use for it), but I did catch that a parsec is 3.26 light years (a light year is distance, not time). One parsec is analogous to an arcsecond (see your old geometry notes for arcs). If a star appears to move one arcsecond as the earth reaches opposite points in its orbit (aphelion and perihelion), due to natural parallax, then that star is a parsec away.

He also talked about Gaia, which is an EU telescope in orbit, and he said that it can pick up objects 32,600 light years out. He followed with a lot of big numbers about size of galaxy and how far we could see, and it was impressive but not note worthy. I know we can't see it all, and I know it's fuzzy due to Earth's atmosphere and gravitational effect on long-distant-traveling light waves.

He talked about Cepheid variables and "standard candles" and I would have to re-read the Asimov book to be well spoken on this.... but basically it's a way to relate variable stars' magnitudes to their distance. Cepeids are like 1.3 billion light years away. Then he talked about Red Shift, using a Slinky!!! OOO I liked that, a steal for the classroom! Holding up said Slinky, he said while at rest, there sat the Slinky looking pretty normal. With a Red Shift, the Universe expanding, the Slinky expands and the distance between coils gets wider (ie long light waves). Doppler/red shift is a little more complex than that.... Asimov explained it like a train whistle when coming toward you is higher, when retreating it's lower. You are getting the long waves as it recedes. The red waves are the long waves.... therefore the redder the star, the more it's rushing away from you. (Aviation uses Doppler too, as a function of radar, depending on how the waves look, you can tell relative speed of another moving object, and direction).

The gist being, the redder the object, the older it is (ie further away) and the smaller the universe was "as we see it" since we are seeing ancient light (some we are seeing was emitted when reptiles were first colonizing the earth, or before the Himalayas were formed).

Novae were also mentioned as "candles" to help calibrate distance, as the dimmer things are, the further they are, and we can see novae yea unto other galaxies of course.

Where the kicker comes in... is that from what we can tell, the Universe, instead of slowing down and coming back together (as we would assume it would do, due to gravity or entropy), is not slowing down. It (shiver) weirdly seems to be speeding UP! So into the calculations now comes Dark Energy. Which is shoving stuff apart and keeps accelerating the process. It's driving the expansion. These things tend to shake up scientists because it's totally outside everyone's explanations, and scientists love to be able to explain things. They can't this one, but we know it's there.

The next part went into the Twilight Zone, because Quantum theory predicts this... but does not provide a good model. Something seems to be in the empty spaces. General relativity (that which predicts gravity wells) may not be correct. I asked about this again at the end, and he said "Neither Quantum nor General Relativity seem to work for the Dark Energy model" and he dragged in a "coined" phrase for a New Force "quintessence" .......... in other words, they are chasing the same confusion that lay people are in this area. There ARE no solid answers here. The math does not compute. (I'll take their word for it, because the math sure goes off MY personal map)

He also showed a lovely graphic of "background microwave radiation" (BMR) from the first Big Bang I guess, that photo has shown up in NatGeo before, and you can google that for more info. Sorta pretty, and some of these graphics looked like neural networking or algae growth in a pond. Really beautiful and fascinating. Tentative thoughts are on taking the data from the LSST and correlating to the BMR map.

Dark Matter is basically "missing matter", and is predicted by gravity theory.... a later comment was "Dark Matter might be like neutrinos, we think. Dark matter is (possibly) heavier particles than neutrinos, but behave the same way, passing right through things" The time they started looking for Dark Matter was when they realized that in order for the galaxies (which are really really huge) to stay together via gravity and not fly apart, there must be more mass to them than we could see, so they hypothesized Dark Matter, which behaves like normal matter according to General Relativity (gravity wells etc). We can see gravitational lensing with nothing apparently there doing the lensing (so it must be Dark Matter). (google Gravitational lensing, a cool effect, makes you see double star images via light bent by gravity wells)

The LSST will be able to get clearer images, better resolution (more pixels) and perhaps refine what we already can see. The Hubble or Gaia on steroids essentially.

I have one more lecture tonight, allegedly there is a planetarium show on Friday, but I might have to miss that one; I have to baby-sit, and 3 and a half year olds can't sit still that long ... I don't think. I'll have to get Mom's permission if we go. Confused

ref: Universe by Isaac Asimov

Cepheids -- chapt 14
doppler -- chapt 5
red shift -- chapt 13
parallax -- chapt 2

August 21, 2015
6:23 pm
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lunazure
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Final night of the free astronomy lectures. It was pretty mild compared to the heady information of the other nights.

I think the gal who spoke was one of the directors, they all had PhDs and such.... nice folks all, not snooty. Her message seemed to be "teamwork" and collaboration, the true direction of science, astronomy and all the above. Science is full of genius types of course, and those who have their own plans/thoughts sometimes don't play well with others, so this is some of the challenge the Very Brainy have to face in life.

The LSST was mentioned as the flagship project of the astronomy community, and you can be sure, there are some folks who AREN'T on board... it's always that way. But, they seem to have the right idea... and the right collaboration.

She showed us the huge mirror they are making for the new telescope.... this is always cool stuff, I've been following it since Palomar was built, my parents took us up there once when we were very small, and it seemed so interesting that a huge mirror was how we looked at stars, not just a long tube with lenses in it (I knew what a lens was fairly young, kids play with that sort of thing). More stats: each image the LSST takes will be 3.5 degrees of the sky, which is quite a bit at the detail they are shooting.

This speaker specialized in solar astronomy and mentioned the Solar Dynamics Observatory Channel on youtube, should you ever get bored and want to just stare raptly at cool flares and such. (I do sometimes). She also talked about the search for exoplanets as a function of stellar transits. She also talked about with no apparently connection or common theme

Binary stars where one star cannibalizes the other (nice artist's rendering)
Red gas giants, periodic variable energy output as a function of binary star cannibalism
Supernovae used as "standard candles" (usually they use novae in the Magellanic Clouds)
Tidal forces with Black Holes and how they shred their companion stars...

All of this stuff they are hoping to get clearer views of with the LSST, or to understand them better. Looking back on these notes, she watered down the presentation just fine, and aimed it at her audience... tonight the "goofy questions" (mostly about Black Holes) were at a minimum. The really goofy stuff involved how much nicer it would be to put this telescope into orbit, or on the Moon where the atmosphere wouldn't be such a problem. Sadly folks have no concept of the financing needed for this. The estimates of the LSST cost (they are just barely starting construction) are around 68 million dollars, which I thought was darn reasonable. Another interesting thing I found out, is the site (which is a tad north of Santiago) is already a site for other minor observatories: as she put it "once you find a good site, many want to use it"

Yeah this gal would make a good kid teacher, K-12. I have several of her diagrams in my notes, good ones too. Here's a good quote. "Observing is not the same as discovering"............ she used as an example some of Galileo's notes, and said he had discovered Neptune many years before it really was defined as a planet.... but he thought it was a star! So just because you have the notes and data, doesn't mean you understand it. She talked about "mining data" which is a relatively new concept.... one I like, you can often do this from your armchair with the advent of the Internet. Applying computer advances to astronomy is what it's all about.

She then talked about "the junk drawer of shame" that is, something everyone has in their kitchen usually, and how difficult it can be to keep that sorted out. (We all have one). She mentioned sorting out the random data, and then finding patterns in it, or answers if you will. Mentioned was

http://www.zooniverse.org

Which is a "citizen scientist" site, where you can help sort out data in many fields of research. I haven't gotten there yet, but it sounds kinda fun.

A bunch of people seemed to want to see the raw data themselves, and mentioned already on line or coming out soon as public domain was the Dark Energy Survey.

Hubble and Gaia are not the only space based telescopes, there are more of them, but bottom line, basing it in Chile is a lot cheaper, and frankly more people can get to Chile than they can to outer space in case of repair needed. They can adjust for atmospherical interference.

There were going to be more lectures go down at the Pacific Planetarium, which is at 817 Pacific Ave, Bremerton (I had no idea we had one in our town!!!) but those would cost money, and I have to baby sit tonight anyway.

They also said some of the "astronomy slam" videos were up on youtube, some of the astronomers in town were out drinking and giving small presentations all over town I guess, which must be interesting. If I find them I'll post them.

August 26, 2015
5:25 pm
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leslee
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I could dig a site of posts like this. Maybe I'll get the gumption to while away the hours at zooniverse. Thanks for taking the time to post.

August 26, 2015
7:44 pm
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lunazure
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I sure enjoyed the lectures. If you get a moment, google LSST, there is plenty more on those sites. Then you won't have to use links. I still can't believe they were just free, and all those astronomers were in town. I think Chile is on my bucket list in about five years to see this new telescope.

April 28, 2017
10:56 pm
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leslee
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Here's an anecdote. The EVO! bit me yesterday, so I got some Nexcare waterproof bandages this morning. I applied Neosporin and put one on. I just pulled the Nexcare off, and the thing is 75 percent healed.

April 28, 2017
10:56 pm
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leslee
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Here's an anecdote. The EVO! bit me yesterday, so I got some Nexcare waterproof bandages this morning. I applied Neosporin and put one on. I just pulled the Nexcare off, and the thing is 75 percent healed.

April 30, 2017
3:13 pm
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lunazure
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Neosporin is fabulous stuff.... and I'm sorry Evo bit you. She might be in pain, how old is she? Both of you be more careful, and go get her some milk bones to make up. My cats bite me all the time, but it seems natural with them. Once in a while they get smacked if it's too ferocious. Already one cat fight outside the door, apparently two visiting Toms met up out there. Sophie wasn't involved, only as an innocent bystander. Those Toms are whistling up the wrong tree that's for sure, everyone's neutered here!

I have no statistical magic to share.... I have noticed a statistical drop off in interviews from the Moody Blues (Justin specifically of course) and rather than whining about it, I hope they are all ok. Gray is the last one to check in, and that was reply a post I put on his FB about Nichelle Nichols.... (she really is a gorgeous gal, still) Which proves Gray is still rattling around somewhere.

February 10, 2018
8:28 am
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maitrishah1
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Thank you, I will check it out later. Lots of activity here right now free facebook gift code generator

February 10, 2018
1:52 pm
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lunazure
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Who IS this joink????

February 10, 2018
2:00 pm
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leslee
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One way to lie with statistics is to generate false demand. Pretend you're a bot and you post excitedly about you can't talk now because you're so involved with all this free stuff here and there.

This can be avoided if you refer to the Moody Blues song, "No More Lies," in which, if you commit with your bots to be wholly honest going forward, would reduce the bot's request to something more like, "Hello. Would somebody be my friend and be nice to me? I'm so empty inside, I thought I could win money by using people, but now I have found a higher calling." Oh, she's so passetix (An EVO! word), don't you just want to hug her?

June 18, 2018
1:11 pm
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alexsharma
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